Bitcoin has been up and down over the past few weeks with a much lower trading volume. Investors’ patience and confidence are eroding away as there has been no significant rebound after the crypto swooned. It has been speculated that this bear market would not end in just a few months.
In order to better survive through the switching bull market and bear market, BOOM started the second talks on June 10th. It was hosted by BOOM CMO Jeffrey, and we successfully invited 4 senior researchers, including Robert(Researcher Of Kucoin Ventures), Vincent(CTO of Decent Think Tank), Alvin(Contributor of Research DAO), and Leon (Draper Dragon Fund Investment Manager).
Full version:https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1ZkKzbLwgDvKv?s=20
And here comes the recap:
Q1 What’s the difference between this bear market and the last one?
Vincent: This round of bear market is a bigger challenge.The correlation between crypto market and US stock is much higher, and we are now facing Corona, the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, and tighter global monetary policies. The good news is that the influence of the macro economy would have a great impact on this one and the global regulatory awareness of the crypto market has increased.
Alvin： When we mentioned the last bear market, most people would think of the crypto crash by the end of 2017 since that was almost the earliest one.However,I don’t really suggest setting the so-called bull market or bear market purely by the price. In my opinion, the last bear market started in the middle of 2019 and ended in the first quarter of 2020.
Back to this question, I don’t think there would be a big difference,especially in the capital-intensive market. Both retail and institutional investors would bottom fishing if it’s profitable. After all, we are in the Web3.0 world now. The very topic might change, but the inner logic never.
Robert： The first point of the answer is that the volume is different. The 2018–2019 market is really a so-called bear market. But the crypto market now is a matter of trillion dollars and it cannot be ignored by the traditional marketplace anymore. There’s a lot we can do nowadays. Second, I think the last bear market is more like a digital VC project in that most projects only have a concept and there’s no real product or application. Last but not least, the communication and our legal system are better now.
Q2 How do you perceive opening a short position in a bear market?
Alvin：It’s a good strategy, especially in the sight of financial investment. But few people would really stick to this plan. For the short players, a sudden crash might be profitable and efficient but too difficult to capture. Investing during this time is not only about returns but also about time efficiency and the attention you devoted.
Q3 Please share one of your most memorable investment experiences.
Vincent: The most memorable one happened at the end of December last year. After technical analysis, I was sure that this time I fell to the bottom. I opened long with high leverage and the price directly fell by a quarter, my position was liquidated, I experienced a heavy loss. This taught me a lesson that one should always follow trends, respect the market, and technical analysis can only be used as a reference. Black swan events are difficult to predict, you need to keep cautious.
Lawrence： My trading starts in March of 2020, the initial investment amount was about ¥400,000. I started that trading on Huobi and then extended to leverage trading using 5 leverage in April. In 2020, I traded a lot on BTC at first and moved to ETH by the end of the year.
By March 2021, I had 24,500 ETH in my account, it was crazy! I still remember the night of March 21 when my girlfriend and I watched a movie in the theater and suddenly saw the news of a crackdown on mining policies come out and I forgot I was still holding $4 million positions. However, I didn’t stop the loss in time. I didn’t see it coming and made some wrong decisions trying to get my money back. Although I formulated a set of strategies in the final stage, they were not effectively planted. After all, human beings are not machines and our emotions can lead to a disaster.
Q4 Personal view on the future market.
Vincent:
[Short Term]
There could be a bull run in Jan and BTC might come to $35,000. ETH is slightly weaker than BTC but it can still be expected to come to around $2450.Less dumping and the rise of long position may cause a bullish trend . People are gradually accepting the interest rate rise and I believe there may be a shipment at the end of this month after the dealer attract enough traders who’re betting on the long position.
[Middle Term]
The Crypto market is likely to start the next round of declines after July. The next round of BTC may come to around $20,000. And ETH might come to around $1200 because of the interest rate hikes in Europe and the world has entered a stage of tightening monetary policy. The Fed’s rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are still difficult to reduce inflation. Therefore, the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates after September is not ruled out, and market sentiment will reach a freezing point;
Six months of short-term rise is the result of realized expectations. But this can not continue for the present small, decreasing crypto market. Crypto might reach a new low by the end of the year.
[Long Term]
With the upgrade of ETH2.0, the Crypto market could leverage this opportunity to experience a small upsurge by the end of 2022 and in early 2023, new crowds and whales would come in at that time and the possible ease of the global interest rate could release the market. Numbers can be expected to reach $50,000 in 2023. After BTC is up again in 2024, which is the next round of the bull market, we can see $100,000/BTC.
Q5 An advice for investors in a bear market.
Vincent: Follow the principles, make long-term investments, be patient and objective about this world.
Lawrence： Cash matters most and the most important thing is to survive in this bear market.
About BOOM Talks
BOOM Talks is a series of Space events started by the official BOOM Twitter, focusing on industry trends and hot topics, regularly inviting celebrities, pioneers and KOL from crypto to share their views and opinions. Users who participate in each event will also have a chance to win up to 20U of our prizes!
See More:
BOOM Talks 1 Recap: Is SocialFi Gonna be the Next Big Trend?
About BOOM
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